Comparing Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and Invesco ETF: Risks and Returns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 17 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MSFT?
Source: Fool
- Return Analysis: Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 Index has generated nearly 695% in total returns, showcasing its strength as a wealth generator, yet the increasing tech concentration raises investment risks.
- Tech Stock Impact: The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF features Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, whose combined market cap exceeds $11 trillion, accounting for over 20% of the ETF's portfolio, indicating a significant influence on overall performance.
- Risk-Reward Tradeoff: The Invesco Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF mitigates the impact of any single stock on fund performance by equally weighting each stock, making it suitable for risk-averse investors, though it may limit overall returns.
- Historical Performance Comparison: Over the last decade, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF has significantly outperformed the Invesco ETF, particularly amid rapid tech growth, with potential for an even wider return gap due to the rise of AI stocks.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy MSFT?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on MSFT
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company that develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services, spanning a variety of devices and platforms. It comprises Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services; Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, and Dynamics products and cloud services. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of its public, private, and hybrid server products and cloud services. It comprises server products and cloud services, including Azure, and enterprise and partner services, including Enterprise Support Services. Its More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows and Devices, including Windows OEM licensing; Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content; Search and news advertising, comprising Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News, and Microsoft Edge.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Microsoft Stock Soars 680% Over Past Decade
- Impressive Stock Performance: Microsoft's stock has surged approximately 680% over the past decade, transforming a $10,000 investment into $78,010, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 260% return, highlighting its strong market appeal and investment value.
- Strong Cloud Growth: Microsoft's Azure cloud segment achieved a 39% year-over-year revenue growth in the latest quarter, with a backlog of $625 billion, indicating its leadership in the generative AI space and a high-margin business model that investors favor.
- Valuation Adjustments Impact: Microsoft recently lost its premium status, now trading at a market-matching P/E ratio, which has affected investor confidence regarding its future growth, particularly due to valuation fluctuations from its 27% stake in OpenAI.
- Optimistic Future Growth Outlook: Despite recent stock sell-offs, Wall Street analysts project a 16% revenue growth for this fiscal year and 15% for the next, suggesting that the company's robust performance in AI infrastructure will continue to support its long-term growth potential.
See More
OpenAI Secures $110B Funding Round, Impacts Microsoft and Oracle
- Massive Funding Round: OpenAI's announcement of securing $110 billion in funding at a pre-money valuation of $730 billion and a post-money valuation of $840 billion alleviates concerns about its ability to pay bills, positively impacting Microsoft and Oracle.
- Contract Funding Assurance: The new capital will support OpenAI's $250 billion compute contract with Microsoft and $300 billion contract with Oracle, ensuring its funding needs for the coming years and further solidifying its market position.
- Microsoft Valuation Boost: Analysts expect a significant increase in the value of Microsoft's stake in OpenAI, estimating that if diluted, Microsoft's ownership could be worth around $200 billion, or about 7% of its market cap, making its current valuation multiples more attractive.
- Oracle's Execution Challenge: While the funding round initially seems positive for Oracle, analysts express concerns about its ability to execute contracts effectively, especially as discussions shift to the ROI of AI and the growing commitment between OpenAI and Amazon Web Services.
See More
OPENAI: UNVEILING $110 BILLION IN NEW FUNDING WITH A $730 BILLION PRE-MONEY VALUATION
- Investment Announcement: OpenAI has announced a significant investment of $110 billion.
- Valuation Context: This investment comes at a pre-money valuation of $730 billion.
- Major Contributors: The funding includes $30 billion from SoftBank, $30 billion from NVIDIA, and $50 billion from Amazon.
- Strategic Implications: This substantial financial backing highlights the growing interest and confidence in AI technologies and OpenAI's potential.
See More
Microsoft Stock Sell-Off Creates Rare Buying Opportunity
- Stock Price Decline: Microsoft has seen a nearly 30% drop in stock price from its all-time high, yet analysts believe this presents a rare buying opportunity, with expectations of significant price increases over the next three years.
- AI Investment Outlook: Microsoft's approach to AI investment differs from peers by providing access to multiple generative AI models, positioning the company to benefit from the overall growth in AI computing and enhance its market share.
- Strong Azure Growth: Microsoft's cloud computing division, Azure, reported a 39% year-over-year revenue increase last quarter, and is expected to maintain robust growth in the coming years, serving as a primary revenue driver for the company.
- Optimistic Earnings Projections: Analysts forecast Microsoft's earnings per share to reach $19.02 in fiscal 2027, and if the company sustains a 15% growth rate, EPS could rise to $23.45 in three years, indicating a potential stock price doubling to $774, showcasing strong investment value.
See More
Meta Could Reach $3 Trillion Valuation Within Two Years
- AI-Driven Advertising Innovation: Meta's Advantage+ product automates ad campaigns, enhancing ad creation and targeting efficiency, which is expected to further drive ad revenue growth and strengthen market competitiveness.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Advantage+ reached a $60 billion annual revenue run rate in Q3, while its video generation tools hit a $10 billion run rate in Q4, showcasing the strong revenue-driving potential of AI technologies.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Meta's capital expenditures are projected to reach $135 billion in 2024, nearly double the 2025 levels, indicating a long-term commitment to AI technology despite investor concerns over rising infrastructure costs.
- Valuation Potential Analysis: With a forward P/E of 21, below peers, analysts forecast a 16% EPS growth by 2027, suggesting that if Meta successfully transitions to an AI services company, its valuation could significantly increase.
See More
Microsoft Poised to Become the Next Alphabet
- Stock Price Potential: Microsoft is currently valued at its lowest point since the 2023 sell-off, and with a 17% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, this suggests that now is an opportune time for investment, with a significant rebound expected in the near future.
- AI Sector Growth: Microsoft's Azure segment, which is most exposed to AI, saw a remarkable 39% year-over-year growth, showcasing its leadership in technological innovation and potentially providing strong momentum for future revenue growth.
- Optimistic Market Expectations: Wall Street analysts are bullish on Microsoft’s future, projecting revenue growth of 16% for fiscal year 2026 and 15% for fiscal year 2027, indicating strong confidence in the company's long-term growth potential.
- Valuation Recovery Potential: With a trailing P/E ratio of 24, if Microsoft returns to a 30 times earnings valuation, it would imply a 25% upside based solely on valuation, not accounting for the expected earnings growth over the coming years.
See More
Microsoft Stock Soars 680% Over Past Decade
- Impressive Stock Performance: Microsoft's stock has surged approximately 680% over the past decade, transforming a $10,000 investment into $78,010, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 260% return, highlighting its strong market appeal and investment value.
- Strong Cloud Growth: Microsoft's Azure cloud segment achieved a 39% year-over-year revenue growth in the latest quarter, with a backlog of $625 billion, indicating its leadership in the generative AI space and a high-margin business model that investors favor.
- Valuation Adjustments Impact: Microsoft recently lost its premium status, now trading at a market-matching P/E ratio, which has affected investor confidence regarding its future growth, particularly due to valuation fluctuations from its 27% stake in OpenAI.
- Optimistic Future Growth Outlook: Despite recent stock sell-offs, Wall Street analysts project a 16% revenue growth for this fiscal year and 15% for the next, suggesting that the company's robust performance in AI infrastructure will continue to support its long-term growth potential.
See More
OpenAI Secures $110B Funding Round, Impacts Microsoft and Oracle
- Massive Funding Round: OpenAI's announcement of securing $110 billion in funding at a pre-money valuation of $730 billion and a post-money valuation of $840 billion alleviates concerns about its ability to pay bills, positively impacting Microsoft and Oracle.
- Contract Funding Assurance: The new capital will support OpenAI's $250 billion compute contract with Microsoft and $300 billion contract with Oracle, ensuring its funding needs for the coming years and further solidifying its market position.
- Microsoft Valuation Boost: Analysts expect a significant increase in the value of Microsoft's stake in OpenAI, estimating that if diluted, Microsoft's ownership could be worth around $200 billion, or about 7% of its market cap, making its current valuation multiples more attractive.
- Oracle's Execution Challenge: While the funding round initially seems positive for Oracle, analysts express concerns about its ability to execute contracts effectively, especially as discussions shift to the ROI of AI and the growing commitment between OpenAI and Amazon Web Services.
See More
OPENAI: UNVEILING $110 BILLION IN NEW FUNDING WITH A $730 BILLION PRE-MONEY VALUATION
- Investment Announcement: OpenAI has announced a significant investment of $110 billion.
- Valuation Context: This investment comes at a pre-money valuation of $730 billion.
- Major Contributors: The funding includes $30 billion from SoftBank, $30 billion from NVIDIA, and $50 billion from Amazon.
- Strategic Implications: This substantial financial backing highlights the growing interest and confidence in AI technologies and OpenAI's potential.
See More
Microsoft Stock Sell-Off Creates Rare Buying Opportunity
- Stock Price Decline: Microsoft has seen a nearly 30% drop in stock price from its all-time high, yet analysts believe this presents a rare buying opportunity, with expectations of significant price increases over the next three years.
- AI Investment Outlook: Microsoft's approach to AI investment differs from peers by providing access to multiple generative AI models, positioning the company to benefit from the overall growth in AI computing and enhance its market share.
- Strong Azure Growth: Microsoft's cloud computing division, Azure, reported a 39% year-over-year revenue increase last quarter, and is expected to maintain robust growth in the coming years, serving as a primary revenue driver for the company.
- Optimistic Earnings Projections: Analysts forecast Microsoft's earnings per share to reach $19.02 in fiscal 2027, and if the company sustains a 15% growth rate, EPS could rise to $23.45 in three years, indicating a potential stock price doubling to $774, showcasing strong investment value.
See More
Meta Could Reach $3 Trillion Valuation Within Two Years
- AI-Driven Advertising Innovation: Meta's Advantage+ product automates ad campaigns, enhancing ad creation and targeting efficiency, which is expected to further drive ad revenue growth and strengthen market competitiveness.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Advantage+ reached a $60 billion annual revenue run rate in Q3, while its video generation tools hit a $10 billion run rate in Q4, showcasing the strong revenue-driving potential of AI technologies.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Meta's capital expenditures are projected to reach $135 billion in 2024, nearly double the 2025 levels, indicating a long-term commitment to AI technology despite investor concerns over rising infrastructure costs.
- Valuation Potential Analysis: With a forward P/E of 21, below peers, analysts forecast a 16% EPS growth by 2027, suggesting that if Meta successfully transitions to an AI services company, its valuation could significantly increase.
See More
Microsoft Poised to Become the Next Alphabet
- Stock Price Potential: Microsoft is currently valued at its lowest point since the 2023 sell-off, and with a 17% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, this suggests that now is an opportune time for investment, with a significant rebound expected in the near future.
- AI Sector Growth: Microsoft's Azure segment, which is most exposed to AI, saw a remarkable 39% year-over-year growth, showcasing its leadership in technological innovation and potentially providing strong momentum for future revenue growth.
- Optimistic Market Expectations: Wall Street analysts are bullish on Microsoft’s future, projecting revenue growth of 16% for fiscal year 2026 and 15% for fiscal year 2027, indicating strong confidence in the company's long-term growth potential.
- Valuation Recovery Potential: With a trailing P/E ratio of 24, if Microsoft returns to a 30 times earnings valuation, it would imply a 25% upside based solely on valuation, not accounting for the expected earnings growth over the coming years.
See More
